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Archive for the Credit Crunch Category

Real IRA, Sorry Is The Hardest Word, JuryTeam and the Leverington Action Group

The ‘REAL’ IRA
This weekend the news broke that Sappers Mark Quinsey and Patrick Azimkar were shot dead by dissident republicans in Antrim, Northern Ireland. We had all hoped we had seen the end of these sort of horrific attacks by lunatic Irish extremists. It’s been twelve years since members of our armed forces were last subjected to this kind of assault in Northern Ireland. The question on everyone’s lips, of course, is: “Is this an isolated incident orchestrated by some fringe players, or is this the start of renewed hostility?” (Although I accept the actual words on people’s lips might not be as long-winded as that.)

There has been such progress in Northern Ireland that it would be absolutely tragic if things were allowed to deteriorate again. Our government and security forces must tread a delicate line; making sure the perpitrators are caught and properly punished, while not tarring those who want peace with the same brush. We must quickly bring these evil terrorists to justice, while taking great care to protect the optimistic peace which has developed in the troubled region. Let’s play hardball with the men who did this by all means, they deserve the heaviest penalties the court’s have available. But let’s try not to let this derail the region. That’s exact what the terrorists want.

Sorry Is The Hardest Word
My young son was a little naughty the other day and I had to put him in his room for a while to calm down and think about what he’d done. After a while I went in and we had a chat. I explained to him why what he’d done was wrong and I told him it was time to come down and apologise. I explained that this is how ‘good guys’ behaved (he’s four, this is language he ‘gets’) He did so in that earnest way that only young children really can and to be honest my heart melted. When somebody says sorry and means it, it takes a hard heart not to forgive them.

Gordon Brown could take a lesson from my Son. He can’t possibly believe he’s perfect, can he? He must accept that he is, in some part, responsible for our current economic woes. After all, he’s been at the helm in one form or another for over a decade. Now we can argue all day about just how much of it is Labour’s fault and how much of it is a ‘global phenomenon’. At this point, I’m not sure it matters. What does matter is that people all over the country are finding things very tough and are becoming very angry about the state of our nation.

I’m not suggesting that if Gordon Brown says sorry it will magically ‘fix’ everything. Of course it wont. In fact, I’m of the opinion that the current administration do not have the skills to begin the job of getting us out of our national hole. But when you apologise you don’t do it because you think it will ‘fix’ what you did wrong. You do it because its the right thing to do. If Gordon Brown expressed his sincere and genuine regret for his part in the crisis he thinks it will be a weapon that can be used against him by the opposition and the press. And he’s right. But he should still do it because that’s the way ‘good guys’ behave. Didn’t his father tell him that?

Jury Team
A new political party (organisation) was formed this weekend that made the news with some fanfare. Called JuryTeam their website says that they are:
a political movement created with the goal of making politics more accessible, politicians more accountable and political institutions more transparent.
Which is all well and good. Their ‘method’ for achieving this is apparently to avoid the need for political ‘parties’ by supporting independents across the U.K. and getting them elected. Independents are important to our political system, it is the ability for ‘anybody to stand’ that makes democracy what it is. But I’m a little sceptical as to how a group of people who may have diametically-opposed political views can possibly stand under the same ‘banner’. I can see that if a lot of JuryTeam MPs were able to get elected it would force the government in power to properly justify their actions and would hold them to account by circumventing the power of the whips. But on the flip side, doesn’t this mean the elected government will find it difficult to achieve the aims for which they were elected due to the impossible task of trying to convince a bunch of independents who all want completely different things for the country?  It seems like a bit of a ragtag idea to me, but I’m keeping an open mind about it.  Fresh ideas can’t hurt, can they?

Leverington Action Group
Road safety in our villages is something which matters greatly to all of us. Despite hard work on the part of the Conservative council there is always more we can do! That’s why it’s so great to see people united in working for safety and security in our area! In Leverington, a group of concerned homeowners are forming an action group to deal with places that are known as local trouble spots; most particularly Leverington Common. The group will act in a concerted way to represent their concerns to the District and County Councils, the police and to other relevant agencies. Led by Caroline Benincasa, assisted by veteran campaigner Tony Kiddle and my humble self, a group of dedicated villagers will make their case over the coming months to ensure something is done to reduce the problems and potential for injury in local black spots! This is the sort of positive, sensible action that gets things done. I met with the organisers of the new group last Saturday and was very impressed by their knowledge, enthusiasm and dedication. Local Activism is vital for the health and success of our society. Government should be there for a few specific national jobs, everything else is best decided at the most local level.

A Tax On Oxygen & Campaign Launch

A Tax On Oxygen
I’m sitting here reading the news that the Bank Of England has, today, begun its ‘Quantitative Easing’ (Printing Money.) We’ve all known it was coming. I’ve personally dreaded it because its a short-sighted and exceptionally dangerous thing to do. Trying to explain to people who aren’t interested in economics why money-printing is bad news is difficult because its easy to get bogged down in ‘clever’ terminology and mathematics. But everybody instinctively understands that you can’t conjure money from thin air. Not without serious consequences, anyway.  If you could, we all would.

The real truth about Quantitative Easing, as I’ve said before, is that it is a stealth tax. Every pound ‘printed’ devalues every other pound in the world. The more you print, the less the existing pounds are worth. So every time the government ‘invents’ another lot of cash, they are stealing directly from your pockets and from your bank accounts and from your future earnings. If you have UK Pounds stirling there is no way to avoid this stealth tax and since the Bank Of England has expressed their intention to continue printing each month this is an ongoing cumulative tax on us all. No specific one activity is being taxed, you can’t escape it and it’s not targeted at a specific industry or goods. Consequently, the best way to view it is as a tax on the air we breathe. That too would be inescapable and ongoing in the same way. I wonder if the government would get away with it if people made that comparison more often?

Campaign Launch
I’m presently working on the wording and photographs for my forthcoming campaign as County Councillor for the Roman Bank And Peckover Ward.  I’m standing (as you might guess) as a candidate for the Conservatives.  If anybody who reads this blog is interested in volunteering to help with the campaign; deliver leaflets, canvassing and other assistance, I’d gratefully welcome your help!  Give me a call on 07831 616127, or email me on me@stevetierney.org
The areas my ward includes are Wisbech North, Leverington, Gorefield, Newton and Tydd St. Giles, all in Cambridgeshire.

Deflation, Pizza, Politics and Mortgages To The Max!

Deflation
Governments live in fear of the word.  Banks tremble before its dark and awesome majesty.  They would have us believe that a deflationary environment is the worst of all things.  Of course, the picture isn’t as clear as all that.  During a period of deflation, money goes up in value.  Each day that passes, the money you have is worth more.  So if you have savings, or a good reliable income, or if you are a creditor, you will find deflation rather less than an unhappy situation.  If you are a low earner you don’t get all these benefits, but you do still find your lower wage goes a lot further as the cost of living drops.  The people who are really hurt by deflation would be anybody who owes a huge amount of money.  This is because the debt, with each day of deflation, increases.  Now, who do we know who really owes a lot of money.  Trillions, say?  Oh yes, it’s the government isn’t it?  But don’t worry, they can just print fictional money, pay what they owe with that, and force the country back into inflation again.  What do we call it when people deliberately play with the economy to make themselves consistently richer?  Corruption, isn’t it?

Gordon Brown Wants To Ban 100% Mortgages, Does He?
Well, of course he does.  Two thousand-nine is  ”invent a stupid initiative year” and he has to junk one out at least every forty seconds or he’ll lose a bet with Jack Straw.  Please, somebody tell me, what business is it of government to tell banks how much they can lend?  It’s private business, despite their best attempts to make it otherwise with our favourite high-street brands.  Government has a job, but this isn’t it.  What government should be doing is making sure that banks lend a reasonable amount that people can afford to pay.  If thats 100%, or 500% or whatever, fine.  The important thing is that the bank does due dilligence to make sure its borrowers are within their means.  Banks that deliberately lend more than somebody can afford, or who make no attempt to even check how much their customers can afford, should be directed to the courts - who should have the power to write off the debt due in its entirety.  Then, I suspect, we’d see sensible lending come back very quickly indeed.

Pizza & Politics
I’m quite excited about this coming week, and that’s because we’ve reached Pizza&Politics II (The Revenge of Pizza & Politics?)  Following the phenomenal success in March last year, FensCF are bringing their flagship event to Wisbech for another run of intelligent debate, friendly congregation and a huge amount of PIZZA to be Scoffed.  The event is aimed at anybody from 14 through to 30 years of age.  Coming To Wisbech on Friday 27th February 2009, 7.00pm to 9.00pm at the Oasis Centre.  Free Pizza, Free Soft Drink, Free Your Mind.  Special Guests:- Malcolm Moss MP and Stephen Barclay PPC.  Come along, it’ll be a great night!

Trillions In Debt & The Madness Of Printing Money

Trillions In Debt
Many of today’s newspapers have the headline talking about how we are now Two Trillion in debt.  Just to show you how many zeroes that is : £2,000,000,000,000.  It equates to £33,000 pounds each.  If you are a pregnant woman right now, your child will be born into a debt of £33,000. 

So when you receive your oh-so-generous £250.00 cheque from the government which is supposed to kick-start savings for your new baby, that’ll leave a £32,750 outstanding balance.  Let’s hope they don’t start sending red letters too soon!  The sad thing about all this is that it’s almost certainly under-estimated.  Yes, it takes into account the banks we part-own.  But it’s only guessing the liabilities of those banks and its being optimistic in its guesses (in my humble opinion). 

Nor is it taking into account those mysterious PFIs (Public Fund Initiatives) that Gordon Brown is so keen not to talk about.  In a year’s time we’ll have the costs of welfare soaring through unemployment, massive falls in income from business taxation, and a pound whose value could be so debased by ‘Quantitative Easing’ (creating money via magic wand) that it will look a sorry relation to today’s already-damaged sterling currency.

I suspect the real figure is much higher.  With every month that passes it will continue to climb.  Our Prime Minister, like so many debt-laden individuals before him, is dealing with it by dropping the outstanding bills into a bottom drawer and taking on more debt to create the illusion of wealth.  That’s understandable (if unwise) from a stress- and worry-worn debtor who is out of options.  But Gordon Brown isn’t doing it with his money.  He’s doing it with our money.   Or rather… our future money.  He ran out of ‘our current money’ years ago.

The Madness Of Printing Money
Economics is a subject that can be mystifying to those who haven’t studied it, or who aren’t confident with mathematics.  It isn’t really that tricky, it’s just that economists have that infuriating tendency to bury everything in their impenetrable economist’s language. 

In the world you have a certain amount of money chasing a certain amount of products.  If you suddenly increase the amount of money in circulation, the knock-on effect is to increase the cost of the products.  Markets, given a little ‘time’ to adjust, automatically fix the prices on products to equal the amount of money available to buy them.

 As a very basic example, if two men have £10.00 each to spend on an item they both want badly, and if nobody else wants to buy the item, then the item is probably worth £10.00.    Why?  Because they both badly want it and will pay what they have to spend to prevent the other getting it instead.  The most they have is £10.00 so that is all it can hope to achieve in sale price.  If you print some magic-money and give both men another £10.00 each, what happens to the value of the item?  It increases to £20.00.   Why?  Because this is the same situation!  You’ve just increased what the man had to spend from £10.00 to £20.00.  So £20.00 becomes the new ‘highest price the item can achieve.’  There’s ‘Printing Money’ in action, inflationary by its nature!

‘Real’ economies are, of course, vastly more complicated.  Even in my simple example it’s easy to bring up questions.  “What if both buyers clubbed together…?”  “What if they both agreed to only pay a fiver privately?”  However you look at it though the basic premise remains the same. 
Print more money = higher prices. 
If the government pursues its plan to wildly print money, which they tell us is to prevent deflation (arguable), they will in actuality cause inflation.  Possibly massive inflation.  

This is, of course, if you even accept the reason behind this is that the government wishes to prevent deflation.  Might it actually be that the government is fearful that it will be unable to raise money on the bond market?  Might they be terrified that every crazy spending binge they plan will fall flat if they find themselves so mistrusted by the lenders of the world that they can’t borrow the money?  Am I being paranoid?  Maybe.  But if so, ask yourself this.  Why is the government quietly changing laws to make it easier to print money without telling anybody how much, or when they do it?  Why is the Bank Of England being so cagey about how much it plans to print, or the mechanisms it will use to circulate the new money?  Laws and practices that have remained unchanged for hundreds of years are quietly being altered with only one obvious outcome that I can see.. to print a whole LOT of money.  And to keep everyone in the dark about it as long as possible.

Quantitative Easing (Money Printing) is the ultimate stealth tax.  To the average working person its almost invisible.  It ‘appears’ to be just the ‘workings of the market’.  “Prices rise,” people say, “But the government aren’t in control of prices, the markets are.”  Not true.  When the government prints a mountain of money and uses it to pay off it’s debts (through convoluted routes) the value of every pound you own falls.  That’s a stealth tax.  The most insidious and secretive one of all.

The Recession, The Banks and Gorefield Conservative Association AGM.

The Recession Is Here
Is there anybody who didn’t already know this? The official figures have finally forced the government to admit what everybody has been more than aware of for the last few months. We are officially in recession. People who have read my blog (and moreso if they’ve seen my comments on the FensCF bulletin board) will know I’ve been making economic predictions for several months now, only to see them come true one after another. I find it absolutely terrifying that the self-styled Economic Guru that is our Prime Minister actually seems to have no understanding of economics whatsoever. You cannot cure a debt-bubble by accumulating more debt. You cannot compete with unregulated countries in an international free market if you over-regulate and over-tax your own companies. You cannot (the words of ancient economist John Maynard-Keynes nothwithstanding) create wealth through government spending. Governments do not create wealth. They only redistribute it. You have to have some to redistribute in the first place!

Gordon Brown needs to stop wishing on a star and start taking urgent action. If he does not, Britain will be bankrupt. The IMF will be called in (and even they may not have enough money to bail us out this time). I just hope that the people of Britain will choose wisely next time and elect a Government that understands that money cannot be magicked into existence. If Gordon Brown decides to try and solve his woes by turning on the printing presses and churning out money then all bets are off! Hyper-Inflation here we come! Just In Case, I’d recommend stocking up on canned goods and candles. With this madman in charge it could still get much, much worse.

The Banks
I’m not going to get into the blame game right now. Anybody who thinks: “All this is the banks fault,” is dangerously oversimplifying. The banks have done some really stupid things, but the Banking Crisis is not the disease. It is just a symptom of the disease. The real ailment is a simple one: too much borrowing. You, me, the government, the banks, the world. Too much borrowing, too much debt, too much risk. We have all (by which I mean a large section of the Western World) chosen to live beyond our means and financed that with a decade of finance. Now, our government’s solution is to punish the few people who have done the sensible thing (avoided borrowing and saved) by crippling their savings and borrowing against their future.

The UK is like a teenager who leaves school and accepts three credit cards. For a while, the teenager looks wealthy and successful, buying anything that is required with a swipe. But when the cards hit their limits and the bills come due, the truth comes out. That’s where we are. The sad thing about the banks is that they are mostly structurally bankrupt. And they know it, which is why they can’t lend, and why they wont lend to each other. They must be allowed to rebuild, which cannot be achieved by forcing them to make even more risky loans. And certainly can’t be achieved by putting moronic government ministers in charge of their business plans.

Gorefield Conservative Branch
It was a pleasure last night to attend the Annual General Meeting of the North-East Cambs Conservative Association - Gorefield Branch. First and foremost, its quite unusual for a pleasant little village like Gorefield to even have its own association! But then when you see how hard they work and how much they achieve you have got to admire them! I watched the AGM and then the Committee Meeting thereafter with much appreciation. They put forwards fund-raising ideas and planned events. They all offered to pitch in and do the work required (not a single one of them was anything less then dedicated, as far as I could see). This is the sort of community- and activist-minded group that we need much, much more of. But best of all, they all seemed to be enjoying it and having a great time! A wonderfully positive attitude!
The current Chairman of the NE Cambs Conservative Association Pam Potts addressed the AGM eloquently with her own frank admiration for the work they have done and continue to do. Debbie Clark (Organising Secretary) was no less grateful.

2009. The Year That Won’t Pass Quietly.

It’s The Economy! (Stupid)
It’s hard to escape the conclusion that this is going to be a horrible year. The economy is taking a swan dive into the abyss. Retailers are closing faster than Gordon Brown can borrow money to mindlessly waste on pointless gimmicks and an ever-expanding bloated public sector. Unemployment is rising sharply. The banks are asking for another bailout (and it wont be the last). But if other governments or international bodies decide they no longer want to loan us money or buy our bonds, what then? I can hear those printing presses warming up as we speak, ready to print pounds until they no longer have any worth at all. Hold on to your hats. It’s going to get scary.

But look on the bright side. We’ve got our families and friends. We live in a (mostly) free country. I suspect, despite Labour’s criminal mismanagement, we’ll get through it. Older and wiser. Perhaps poorer, but maybe with a better understanding of what’s really important. And hopefully with a different party governing us…Birthday parties are a threat. Apparently.
My son had his four-year-old birthday two days ago. He goes to pre-school in Wisbech. I had decided to throw him a party at play2day (a kids adventure-play type place) in Guyhirn. We wanted to invite ten or so other children he knows to the party. Since he is so young we don’t really know who his friends are yet. He mentions names of other children at school, but we thought it would be a good idea to ask his teachers the first names of the children he commonly plays with at school so we could then give them invites to pass to the parents of those same children. Does this seem unreasonable? We didn’t want pictures of them, or to meet them, or to be allowed to give them sharp objects to play with. We just wanted their first names, so we could write on the invites “to the Parents of…. whoever” and then ask the teachers to pass those invites on to the relevant parents. Apparently, this is not allowed. Child Protection forbids it. My son’s schoolmate’s first names need to be ‘protected’ in case their classmates parents… god forbid… invite them to a birthday party.
Help! Help! There might be cake! There might be games!
I wonder if the teachers would reprimand my little son for telling us his friend’s names? “How did you find out this boy was called Jack? Your son told you? Police! Police! Arrest that child!”

Anyhow… Happy new year to anybody who stumbles across this page. I don’t know if I actually have any readers, but if I do, Best Wishes for 2009! It might still all end in roses!

Fens Conservative Future AGM (Annual General Meeting) and The Pre-Budget Report

You might think that since this post of my blog features two items, one being the Pre-Budget Report and the other being a local Conservative Future matter that I’d feature the ‘bigger’ national issue first. Not so. I am primarily a local activist. My first concern is going to regularly be local issues. If the day ever comes that I ascend to ‘higher levels’ of government then that would be the time I’d change my focus, but presently I have a different job to do and I intend to keep my focus there as is appropriate.

FencCF AGM
I got a hard lesson in politics this week. That lesson is “you never know how an election will go.” Of course I knew that already. But knowing there are pins on the floor and stepping on one of them are two different things entirely!
smiley
Our local Conservative Future group, of which I’ve been proud to be secretary for the last year, had its first Annual General Meeting. All the officers were up for re-election, except myself. (I’d already indicated my wish to step down due to (a) being too old to hold the office in a CF group that plans to become an official ‘branch’ and (b) other commitments including my forthcoming work as a prospective county councillor.) The “hot topic” was the election of a new Chairperson for the group. The office was held by Samantha Hoy during our first year and she was standing for re-election. The other candidate was Gavin Philpott, a long-standing member of the group. Now I should stress for people who don’t know these two that you couldn’t wish for a finer pair of candidates. Sam was the founder of FensCF and is an awesome lady who I’m sure will go very far in Conservative politics. Gavin is an intelligent, articulate and thoughtful guy who has proven his worth throughout the group’s first year. If I’d been a betting man I’d have put my money on Sam winning a second year as chairperson. Not because there is anything ‘wrong’ with Gavin (quite the opposite.) But because the group has grown so well and achieved so much with Sam as chairperson that the rule “if it ain’t broke…” seemed to apply. Well, democracy spoke loudly and clearly and Sam’s supporters (I count myself as one of these) were surprised to see Gavin elected. One of our patrons, Councillor Simon King, said quite eloquently: “To those who lost tonight, it is never a pleasant thing to lose. But the democratic election can be seen as fair and honest, you should take comfort in that fact.” (I paraphrase here, but I hope I’ve got the gist of it.) Despite the fact that I am extremely saddened that Sam is no longer chairperson, I am absolutely certain that Gavin will ’step up to the plate’ and do an excellent job. I should also point out that Lucy Heighton was elected as Vice-Chairman, Samantha Hoy was elected as Secretary and Paul Dunham was re-elected as Treasurer. Gavin Philpott was chosen as the group’s Executive Rep.
Many thanks should go to our guest Alex Agius (CF Area Chair) who attended to Chair the meeting for us and did an exemplary job of it.

The Pre-Budget Report
I suppose the Prime Minister must have a whole host of experts, both economic and political, to suggest how to approach something like the pre-budget report. It must be a careful balance of “how best to help the country” and “good political strategy”. But if that’s the case… where are they getting their experts from? It is hard to imagine a more pointless collection of iniatives than that suggested this week. I was really sorry to hear Ken Clarke (somebody for whom I have a great deal of respect) on Daily Politics this week agreeing that VAT was a good route for the government to take for a fiscal stimulus. Good route? It was a bloody stupid route. The good route would have been (if its wise to spend money we don’t have at all, which nobody has yet convinced me of) to increase the Personal Allowance for tax. Or to reduce company contributions for NI and encourage more employment. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they chose VAT over the horrific alternative of ‘tax credits’ (an oxymoron if ever there has been one) but still…. I despair of the government doing anything REAL to help people during these tough times. I really do. Roll on a General Election.

Tydd St. Giles Parish Council & The Ongoing Credit Crunch

Tonight, I had the pleasure of attending the Tydd St. Giles Parish Council meeting. I hope the people of Tydd St. Giles realise what an excellent team they have working for them! I was impressed by the commitment, organisation and passion I saw there. There were plenty of local issues discussed by the councillors, from planning through to streets and highways. But the highlight of the evening was the guest they had invited, a representative of the District Planning Office, Wendy Holland. The Councillors clearly felt that some tough questions needed to be asked and Ms Holland was pleased to try and answer them. After a great deal of pointed to-and-fro I felt the councillors had done a good job of expressing how strongly they feel about the need to properly consult local people about planning matters that may affect them. For her part, Ms. Holland provided concise and honest replies that were well received! I look forward to the next meeting, to be held on Thursday 15th January 2009, from 7PM. The Parish Council have recently introduced “public time” to their agenda, allowing people who live within the parish and express a wish to do so in advance to speak directly to them during their meetings. This sounds like an excellent idea and one which I think speaks very highly of them.

Looking at the wider picture , it seems like the stockmarket has plummeted again. A few friends of mine had recently jumped on the bandwagon proclaiming our Prime Minister a financial genius and I’d said to them, “don’t get too excited just yet. Let’s wait and see. Thing’s can change very quickly.” I even said as much (in so many words) publicly on the Fens Conservative Future message board. I’ve never been so sorry to be proven correct! Hard times are coming,everybody seems to agree. I’m glad I live in a country where people know how to pull together when times get tough and doubly glad I live in an area that epitomises that. Sure things are going to get grim for a while. But like most such storms, it won’t last forever. We just have to stick together and tighten our belts until the dark clouds have passed.